Once a formidable figure in Uttar Pradesh's politics, Mayawati, today struggling to remain relevant, has accelerated the existential crisis facing her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Earlier this week, at a party meeting in Lucknow, she expelled Akash Anand, her nephew and someone long seen as her political heir, from the BSP. Not only did she relieve Anand of all his responsibilities, but she also stated that she would never name anyone as her successor.
The fallout between Mayawati and Anand is not sudden. Last year in May, he was removed from all his posts due to some controversial remarks in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, though he was eventually reinstated a month later. This time, the trigger for Akash's expulsion seems to be his allegedly ‘arrogant' and ‘selfish' response to his suspension as national coordinator. Mayawati said he was acting “under the influence” of his father-in-law, Ashok Siddharth—who, in turn, was expelled from the party last month for allegedly trying to split it down the middle.
A Slew Of Challenges
The whole saga only adds to the BSP's decay. The inconsistent approach of ‘Behenji', her absence from the electoral scene, the party's poor performance in elections, the rise of more popular Dalit youth icons like Chandrasekhar Azad, and the tag of being the ‘B-Team' of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reduced the BSP to almost a non-entity in Uttar Pradesh today. The 2027 assembly elections might as well be the last nail in the party's coffin if Mayawati doesn't mend her ways, take some drastic steps to improve voter outreach, and revive its voter base.
The BSP is almost on life support. In the Lok Sabha elections last year, it failed to win a single seat, with its vote share dropping to a dismal 2.3%, compared to 3.7% in 2019. In Uttar Pradesh, it garnered just 9.5% votes, compared to 19.4% in 2019. In the 2022 assembly elections as well, the party won just a single seat with a vote share of 13%, over 9 percentage points less than its tally in 2017. It has just one MP in Parliament today, that too in the Rajya Sabha. And given its strength in the Uttar Pradesh assembly, even that MP is unlikely to be re-elected once he retires next year.
Only Jatavs—the caste Mayawati belongs to—seem to have remained by her side. Even among Jatav Dalits, the support for her, according to CSDS data, slipped from 87% in 2017 to 65% in the 2022 assembly election, to 44% in the Lok Sabha polls. Among non-Jatav Dalits, whom the BJP had anyway started wooing in 2014, the support for the BSP dropped from 44% to 27%, then to 15%, in the same period.
'B-Team'
Meanwhile, the opposition claims that a lot of what Mayawati has done is due to the fear of ED or CBI action under the BJP's rule at the Centre. But this has cost Mayawati a large chunk of its Muslim vote base and has earned it the tag of being the ‘B-Team' of the BJP. The BSP used to receive over 20% votes from Muslims; by 2024, this had fallen to just 5%.
The rise of Chandrasekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party (ASP) and his victory in Nagina is also symbolic of the BSP's decay. From this very district—Bijnor—had Mayawati made her electoral debut in 1989. Three decades later, in the Lok Sabha election last year, its candidate finished fourth in the Nagina seat with an embarrassing 1.3% vote share. In fact, when Mayawati had placed her bets on Akash Anand, the latter, though not a candidate, delivered his debut electoral speech from Nagina as her heir apparent.
Opponents Are Closing In
The next Uttar Pradesh elections are bound to be a do-or-die battle for Mayawati. The BSP will face a tough challenge from Chandrasekhar Azad, who is trying to portray himself as the only Dalit champion in the state. Azad also belongs to the Jatav caste and is popular among young voters.
On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav, with his ‘Pichda, Dalit and Minority' pitch, has already made a significant dent in the BSP's non-Jatav vote. According to CSDS data, the INDIA bloc bagged 56% non-Jatav support in last year's Lok Sabha election. Naturally, the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance would hope to clinch the remaining Jatav too by 2027. The SP, which trailed behind the BJP by 9% in 2022, needs to claim the BSP's support base in order before that to give a genuine fight to the BJP.
The Regional Curse
Regional parties have a shelf life in India. Many are plagued by existential questions today: what becomes of the Janata Dal (United) after Nitish Kumar? Of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) after Naveen Patnaik? Of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) after K. Chandrasekhar Rao? What does the future hold for the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)?
The BSP has now joined this unceremonious list too. The question is, does Mayawati have the hunger left to pull the BSP out of the throes of irrelevance?
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
from NDTV News- Topstories https://ift.tt/2wEhCoV
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